The forecast has flipped. Australian Broker reported that NAB has become the second big bank in two days to drop its rate-cut call, now tipping an RBA hike at the 28–29 September meeting. ANZ went the day before, pencilling in November. NAB has flagged a possible second November move that would lift the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest since the GFC.
Why the reversal
The trigger is stubborn inflation. Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA's preferred measure, held at 3.6% annually in July, unchanged since late 2025. Household spending rose 7% year-on-year, the fastest annual pace since June 2023. Canstar's Sally Tindall said sticky core inflation is "backing the RBA into a corner."
What it means for a borrower
The numbers are worth noting for anyone with variable debt. On Canstar's figures, two hikes in September and November would add $183 a month to a $600,000 mortgage with 25 years left, taking the cumulative rise across five hikes this year to $456 a month. A $1 million loan would see cumulative increases near $759 a month.
Those figures are mortgage-framed, but the read-across for commercial borrowers is the same: variable facilities move with the cash rate, and the market is pricing higher, not lower. If your borrowing is tied to a variable margin, model the September and November scenarios now rather than after the fact.
Worth balancing against the forecasts: the wider lending market is moving the other way. Canstar's tracking shows 35 lenders have cut variable rates for new customers since 1 June, and 52 now advertise at least one variable rate below 6%. Two banks tipping hikes and dozens of lenders cutting for new business is not a contradiction, it's the gap between where the cash rate goes and where competition sets margins.
We'll keep watching both.
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