The mood music has changed. As Australian Broker reported, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser used an ABC 7.30 appearance to frame the question plainly: "have we done enough, or is more needed?" That is not the language of a central bank finished tightening.
The cash rate already sits at 4.35%, after three increases so far this year. The next call lands on 28–29 September.
The market has moved
The more telling shift is in the pricing. In the last week of August, futures put a September hike at 40%. By the first week of September, that had climbed to 54%, a coin flip. If the RBA holds in September, markets read a November move at roughly 97%.
The forecasters have fallen into line too. All four major banks now expect a further hike before year's end, with Westpac the last to move, tipping 25 basis points in November. Macquarie is picking September.
Behind it all: July headline CPI at 3.5% and trimmed mean at 3.6%, both still above the RBA's 2–3% target band. The bank has been clear it won't ease until inflation is back inside it.
What it changes for a business borrower
Nothing has changed on your loan statement yet. But if you carry variable-rate debt, the working assumption should shift from "rates are steady" to "another 25 points is more likely than not before year's end." On a $500,000 facility, a further quarter-point adds roughly $1,250 a year in interest.
Fixed-rate pricing already reflects these expectations, so the gap between fixed and variable offers is where the market's forecast lives. Reviewing your position against that backdrop is prudent; reacting to a probability that hasn't landed is not.
The 29 September decision will settle the September question. The November one stays open regardless.
General information only.